U.S. Firearms per Capita and
Homicide Rates. No Correlation

US Homicide Rate vs. Firearms per Capita


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By Dean Weingarten. Nov 2, 2024

Sources: Homicide rates are from the FBI UCR. Per Capita Firearm rates calculated from Census data and private firearms numbers calculated using the method pioneered by Newton and Zimring. It was extended by Gary Kleck in "Point Blank: Guns and Violence in America". The number is the cumulative addition of domestic manufacture and imports with the subtraction of exports.

A linchpin of the argument of those who favor a disarmed population is the assumption of "More Guns = More Crime". It was succinctly stated as an assumption in a recent paper. (one source is referenced) Psychopathy, Gun Carrying, and Firearm Violence:

Carrying guns increases the risk of injury and death...

This is a hotly disputed assumption. There are several papers which dispute the premise. If carrying guns does not increase the risk of injury and death, the pragmatic argument for strict restrictions on gun ownership and use collapses. There is some evidence, if guns are restricted in a draconian manner, homicides with guns may be reduced. Overall homicides are not reduced. .....

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